Result
3:2
18/04/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- League Two - Round 43
- Referee: Woods M. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 2.94 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (251/356) | 61% (177/292) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 2.94 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.75 | 3.12 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 33 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 6 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (251/356) | 61% (177/292) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 31% (25/80) | 34% (27/79) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (99/154) | 47% (48/103) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (6/25) | 24% (5/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.06 | 0.96 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (9/14) | 44% (7/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 83 |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 50 | 43 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.12 | 1.75 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.12 | -1.25 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 36', 1 - 0, Kelly G. ⚽, Fusire S. (A),
- 43', 2 - 0, Dennis M. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Walters R. ↓, Byers G. ↑,
- 46', Shorrock J. ↓, Hart S. ↑,
- 49', 3 - 0, Hayden A. ⚽,
- 61', 3 - 1, Stockley J. ⚽, Garrity B. (A),
- 68', Byers G. 🟨,
- 70', 3 - 2, Hart S. ⚽,
- 77', Garrity B. ↓, Curtis R. ↑,
- 79', Wearne S. 🟨,
- 84', Fusire S. ↓, Guy C. ↑,
- 85', Dennis M. 🟨,
- 85', Dennis M. ↓, Hugill J. ↑,
- 86', Hayden A. 🟨,
- 87', Hall C. ↓, Richards R. ↑,
- 90', Wearne S. ↓, Vela J. ↑,
- 90+2', Thomas T. 🟨,
- 90+3', Tolaj L. (Pen),
- 90+4', Dennis M. 🟨,
- 90+4', Barclay B. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Carlisle United
24.6% | Draw
27.2% | Port Vale
48.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carlisle United's form might have worsened.Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Port Vale's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+8.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carlisle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-9.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Port Vale, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Carlisle United - Port Vale Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.82 ↑
(2.82) |
3.46 ↑
(3.31) |
1.95 ↓
(2.41) |
6.4%
(7.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Carlisle United - Port Vale?
Users Predictions:
Port Vale will win
(4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 44.94% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Port Vale will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 1.
- Recent matches Carlisle is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
- Port Vale is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
- Port Vale will have a poor advantage in this game.
- There will not play in Carlisle: Davies A.
(Injury)
Dummett P.
(Hamstring Injury)
Jones J.
(Inactive)
McGeouch D.
(Inactive)
Williams J.
(Injury)
Wyke Ch.
(Broken ankle)
- There will not play in Port Vale: Heneghan B.
(Inactive)
Kyle John
(Inactive)
Sang T.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Port Vale: Headley J.
(Muscle Injury)
- Last 16 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 14:16 (average 0.9:1).
- Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8:9 (average 1.1:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Carlisle United won against Port Vale?
Carlisle United has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Port Vale won against Carlisle United?
Port Vale has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Carlisle United - Port Vale were as follows:
21.12.2024
Port Vale
-
Carlisle United
0:0
01.01.2024
Carlisle United
-
Port Vale
2:1
26.08.2023
Port Vale
-
Carlisle United
1:0
Latest results of Carlisle United
Latest results of Port Vale
English League Two Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bromley | 39 | 22 | 13 | 4 | 62:36 | 26 | 79 |
| 2 | MK Dons | 39 | 21 | 11 | 7 | 76:40 | 36 | 74 |
| 3 | Cambridge Utd | 38 | 20 | 12 | 6 | 56:28 | 28 | 72 |
| 4 | Notts Co | 39 | 21 | 7 | 11 | 65:42 | 23 | 70 |
| 5 | Swindon | 39 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 63:45 | 18 | 69 |
| 6 | Salford | 39 | 21 | 4 | 14 | 54:48 | 6 | 67 |
| 7 | Grimsby | 38 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 56:40 | 16 | 62 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 39 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 61:52 | 9 | 62 |
| 9 | Oldham | 38 | 16 | 13 | 9 | 47:31 | 16 | 61 |
| 10 | Crewe | 39 | 17 | 9 | 13 | 58:47 | 11 | 60 |
| 11 | Walsall | 39 | 17 | 9 | 13 | 48:41 | 7 | 60 |
| 12 | Barnet | 39 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 49:43 | 6 | 57 |
| 13 | Fleetwood | 39 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 48:46 | 2 | 54 |
| 14 | Colchester | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 50:41 | 9 | 53 |
| 15 | Accrington | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 38:42 | -4 | 48 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 44:56 | -12 | 45 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 39 | 13 | 4 | 22 | 40:60 | -20 | 43 |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 43:65 | -22 | 42 |
| 19 | Shrewsbury | 39 | 11 | 8 | 20 | 37:63 | -26 | 41 |
| 20 | Tranmere | 39 | 9 | 9 | 21 | 48:69 | -21 | 36 |
| 21 | Crawley | 39 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 36:60 | -24 | 31 |
| 22 | Newport | 39 | 8 | 7 | 24 | 39:67 | -28 | 31 |
| 23 | Harrogate | 39 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 29:58 | -29 | 30 |
| 24 | Barrow | 38 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 36:63 | -27 | 29 |
Promotion ~ League One
Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ National League
