Result
3:1
06/04/2026 at 13:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 33
- Referee: Manganiello G. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Israel | 5 STARS Israel |
 Italy | LAB Channel |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Russia | Telekanal Futbol |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 2 |
 Slovakia | Sport TV2 |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5 |
 United-kingdom | DCTV |
 Usa | DCTV, FOX One, Fox Soccer Plus |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.61 | 1.59 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (278/350) | 79% (269/339) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.61 | 1.59 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.01 | 1.09 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 23 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (278/350) | 79% (269/339) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 49% (27/55) | 50% (31/62) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (55/74) | 55% (53/97) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 60% (9/15) | 13% (4/30) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.39 | 0.82 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 13 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 23 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (4/5) | 57% (8/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 59 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 50 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.09 | 2.01 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.09 | -0.99 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 16', Bonfanti G. 🟨,
- 17', 1 - 0, Calabrese N. ⚽, Zuelli E. (A),
- 23', 2 - 0, Finotto M. ⚽, Zanon S. (A),
- 27', Abiuso F. (Penalty Awarded),
- 45+2', Mateju A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Mateju A. ↓, Lapadula G. ↑,
- 49', 2 - 1, Valoti M. ⚽, Artistico G. (A),
- 59', Finotto M. 🟨,
- 63', 3 - 1, Abiuso F. ⚽, Hasa L. (A),
- 69', Vignali L. 🟨,
- 70', Finotto M. ↓, Di Stefano F. ↑,
- 70', Rouhi J. ↓, Belloni N. ↑,
- 70', Vignali L. ↓, Comotto C. ↑,
- 70', Bandinelli F. ↓, Adamo E. ↑,
- 79', Hasa L. ↓, Schiavi N. ↑,
- 79', Aurelio G. ↓, Ruggero M. ↑,
- 85', Romano A. ↓, Bellemo A. ↑,
- 85', Zanon S. ↓, Bouah D. ↑,
- 85', Abiuso F. ↓, Rubino T. ↑,
- 85', Valoti M. 🟥,
- 90', Adamo E. 🟥,
- 90', Belloni N. 🟥,
- 90+2', Bonfanti G. 🟥,
- 90+6', Comotto C. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Carrarese
40.4% | Draw
31% | Spezia
28.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Carrarese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)Spezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Spezia's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carrarese than the current prediction. (+4.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (-6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Spezia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Carrarese - Spezia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.33 ↑
(2.1) |
3.04 ↑
(2.84) |
3.3 ↓
(4.12) |
6.1%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Carrarese - Spezia?
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Carrarese will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%). Spezia will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carrarese: 38.8% – 86.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 18 in the zone Relegation).
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Carrarese could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Carrarese: Accornero F.
(Inactive)
Illanes J.
(Yellow Cards)
Salamon B.
(Inactive)
Schiavi N.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Spezia: Beruatto P.
(Yellow Cards)
Cassata F.
(Muscle Injury)
Mateju A.
(Injury)
Sarr M.
(Ankle Injury)
Skjellerup L.
(Inactive)
Zurkowski S.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Spezia: Di Serio G.
(Inactive)
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Carrarese won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 1.3:2.7).
- Including home match between the teams, Carrarese won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:4.
How many head-to-head matches has Carrarese won against Spezia?
Carrarese has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Spezia won against Carrarese?
Spezia has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Carrarese - Spezia were as follows:
24.08.2025
Spezia
-
Carrarese
0:2
19.01.2025
Carrarese
-
Spezia
0:4
22.09.2024
Spezia
-
Carrarese
4:2
Latest results of Carrarese
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia | 33 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 67:28 | 39 | 71 |
| 2 | Frosinone | 33 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 64:32 | 32 | 68 |
| 3 | Monza | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 51:27 | 24 | 66 |
| 4 | Palermo | 33 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 54:27 | 27 | 64 |
| 5 | Catanzaro | 32 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 50:39 | 11 | 53 |
| 6 | Modena | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 43:28 | 15 | 50 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 33 | 10 | 15 | 8 | 39:41 | -2 | 45 |
| 8 | Cesena | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 42:48 | -6 | 44 |
| 9 | Carrarese | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 44:43 | 1 | 42 |
| 10 | Sudtirol | 33 | 8 | 15 | 10 | 35:36 | -1 | 39 |
| 11 | Avellino | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 37:53 | -16 | 39 |
| 12 | Mantova | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 37:48 | -11 | 37 |
| 13 | Sampdoria | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 32:43 | -11 | 37 |
| 14 | Empoli | 33 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 43:48 | -5 | 36 |
| 15 | Padova | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 32:45 | -13 | 34 |
| 16 | Entella | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 31:46 | -15 | 34 |
| 17 | Bari | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 33:51 | -18 | 34 |
| 18 | Pescara | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 46:59 | -13 | 32 |
| 19 | Spezia | 33 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 32:49 | -17 | 30 |
| 20 | Reggiana | 33 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 31:52 | -21 | 30 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
