Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Hockey NHL
Result
2:5
07/03/2026 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • NHL
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
denmarkDenmarkTV3 MAX, Viaplay
finlandFinlandViaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
germanyGermanyNHL.tv
icelandIcelandViaplay
italyItalyDAZN Italia
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
norwayNorwayViaplay
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDAZN
uruguayUruguayDisney+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
worldWorldNHL.tv

Match Stats

Shots on Goal
2933
Shots off target
613
Shooting PCT
6.9% (2/29)15.15% (5/33)
Blocked shots
1111
Goalkeeper Saves
2827
Saves PCT
87.5% (28/32)93.1% (27/29)
Penalties
54
PIM
1311
Power-play Goals
01
Shorthanded Goals
00
Power-play PCT
0% (0/4)20% (1/5)
Pen. Killing PCT
80% (4/5)100% (4/4)
Hits
2225
Faceoffs Won
3122
Faceoffs %
58.4941.51
Giveaways
1512
Takeaways
45
Empty Net Goals
01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Period (1 - 4)
  • 04:50, 1 - 0, Maccelli M. (G), Nylander W. (A),
  • 05:36, 1 - 1, McDonagh R. (G), Kucherov N. (A), Point B. (A2)
  • 06:41, Geekie C. (2 min),
  • 12:14, Domi M. (5 min),
  • 12:14, D'Astous C. (5 min),
  • 12:30, 1 - 2, Guentzel J. (G), Point B. (A), Kucherov N. (A2)
  • 13:48, 1 - 3, Perry C. (G), Hagel B. (A), Cirelli A. (A2)
  • 14:31, Carlo B. (2 min),
  • 15:06, 1 - 4, Bjorkstrand O. (G), Kucherov N. (A), Guentzel J. (A2)
  • 17:49, Raddysh D. (2 min),
  • 2nd Period (0 - 0)
  • 07:34, Stecher T. (2 min),
  • 11:33, Sabourin S. (2 min),
  • 14:22, (2 min),
  • 3rd Period (1 - 1)
  • 00:16, Benoit S. (2 min),
  • 15:41, 1 - 5, Hagel B. (G), Cirelli A. (A), Kucherov N. (A2)
  • 19:29, 2 - 5, Robertson N. (G),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Toronto Maple Leafs
25.5%		Draw
21.2%		Tampa Bay Lightning
53.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
34% 22.2% 43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34% 22.2% 43.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toronto Maple Leafs's form might have worsened.
  • Tampa Bay Lightning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tampa Bay Lightning's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+8.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toronto Maple Leafs, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (-9.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tampa Bay Lightning, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.68 ↑
    (2.78)    		 4.43 ↑
    (4.26)    		 1.77 ↓
    (2.16)    		 6.1%
    (5.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 6.00
    What is the prediction for Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning?
  • Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Tampa Bay will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Tampa Bay: 50.6% – 100%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH +1.5, OT - Tampa Bay (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Tampa Bay Lightning will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Tampa Bay (votes: 5 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:4.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 4.
    • Toronto is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • Tampa Bay's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Tampa Bay may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Tampa Bay might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Toronto: Tanev C. (Abdominal strain)
    • There will not play in Tampa Bay: Crozier M. (Muscle Injury) James D. (Leg Injury) Paul N. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Tampa Bay: Goncalves G. (Lower-Body Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 73:64. (average 3.7:3.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 36:30. (average 3.6:3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning were as follows:
    25.02.2026 Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs 4:2
    08.12.2025 Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning 2:0
    09.04.2025 Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs 3:4
    20.01.2025 Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning 5:3
    30.11.2024 Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs 3:5
    Latest results of Toronto Maple Leafs
    05.03.2026 New York Rangers - Toronto Maple Leafs 6:2 ✺
    04.03.2026 New Jersey Devils - Toronto Maple Leafs 4:3 ✺
    02.03.2026 Toronto Maple Leafs - Philadelphia Flyers 2:3 ✺
    28.02.2026 Toronto Maple Leafs - Ottawa Senators 2:5 ✺
    26.02.2026 Florida Panthers - Toronto Maple Leafs 5:1 ✺
    Latest results of Tampa Bay Lightning
    05.03.2026 Winnipeg Jets - Tampa Bay Lightning 4:1 ✺
    03.03.2026 Minnesota Wild - Tampa Bay Lightning 5:1 ✺
    28.02.2026 Tampa Bay Lightning - Buffalo Sabres 2:6 ✺
    26.02.2026 Carolina Hurricanes - Tampa Bay Lightning 5:4 ✺
    25.02.2026 Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs 4:2 ✺
    NHL Table
    Main

    Western Conference
    PlWWOLOLPts
    1Colorado Avalanche66395913249:17097
    2Dallas Stars673391015235:18494
    3Minnesota Wild6925141218230:19990
    4Anaheim Ducks672215327223:23377
    5Edmonton Oilers69268926243:23577
    6Utah Mammoth68278627214:19176
    7Vegas Golden Knights682381423220:21176
    8Seattle Kraken67256927193:20571
    9Los Angeles Kings6718101524180:20171
    10San Jose Sharks662012628207:23470
    11Nashville Predators67228928199:22869
    12Winnipeg Jets672351128191:20667
    13St. Louis Blues672431030177:22264
    14Chicago Blackhawks671871230178:21762
    15Calgary Flames67224734167:21259
    16Vancouver Canucks67147838176:24850


    Eastern Conference
    PlWWOLOLPts
    1Carolina Hurricanes673111619235:19790
    2Buffalo Sabres68357620237:20090
    3Tampa Bay Lightning66329421237:18486
    4Montreal Canadiens6725121020236:22284
    5Pittsburgh Penguins672951518230:20483
    6New York Islanders682514524200:19283
    7Detroit Red Wings682611823200:20382
    8Boston Bruins682710823224:21482
    9Columbus Blue Jackets6724111121217:20981
    10Ottawa Senators66286923225:20577
    11Philadelphia Flyers6620111223191:20574
    12Washington Capitals68285827212:20374
    13New Jersey Devils672212231180:20470
    14Toronto Maple Leafs692181228216:24170
    15Florida Panthers67267331201:22569
    16New York Rangers67199831190:20964

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