Result
2:5
07/03/2026 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- NHL
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Denmark | TV3 MAX, Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay |
 Germany | NHL.tv |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 Italy | DAZN Italia |
 Mexico | Sky Sport |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Spain | DAZN Espana |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 United-kingdom | DAZN |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | NHL.tv |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 29 | 33 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 13 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 6.9% (2/29) | 15.15% (5/33) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 28 | 27 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 87.5% (28/32) | 93.1% (27/29) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/4) | 20% (1/5) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 80% (4/5) | 100% (4/4) |
| Hits |
|---|
| 22 | 25 |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 31 | 22 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 58.49 | 41.51 |
| Giveaways |
|---|
| 15 | 12 |
| Takeaways |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (1 - 4)
- 04:50, 1 - 0, Maccelli M. (G), Nylander W. (A),
- 05:36, 1 - 1, McDonagh R. (G), Kucherov N. (A), Point B. (A2)
- 06:41, Geekie C. (2 min),
- 12:14, Domi M. (5 min),
- 12:14, D'Astous C. (5 min),
- 12:30, 1 - 2, Guentzel J. (G), Point B. (A), Kucherov N. (A2)
- 13:48, 1 - 3, Perry C. (G), Hagel B. (A), Cirelli A. (A2)
- 14:31, Carlo B. (2 min),
- 15:06, 1 - 4, Bjorkstrand O. (G), Kucherov N. (A), Guentzel J. (A2)
- 17:49, Raddysh D. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (0 - 0)
- 07:34, Stecher T. (2 min),
- 11:33, Sabourin S. (2 min),
- 14:22, (2 min),
- 3rd Period (1 - 1)
- 00:16, Benoit S. (2 min),
- 15:41, 1 - 5, Hagel B. (G), Cirelli A. (A), Kucherov N. (A2)
- 19:29, 2 - 5, Robertson N. (G),
Chances of winning
Toronto Maple Leafs
25.5% | Draw
21.2% | Tampa Bay Lightning
53.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toronto Maple Leafs's form might have worsened.Tampa Bay Lightning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tampa Bay Lightning's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+8.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toronto Maple Leafs, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (-9.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tampa Bay Lightning, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.68 ↑
(2.78) |
4.43 ↑
(4.26) |
1.77 ↓
(2.16) |
6.1%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 6.00
What is the prediction for Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Tampa Bay will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tampa Bay: 50.6% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH +1.5, OT - Tampa Bay (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tampa Bay Lightning will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Tampa Bay (votes: 5 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:4.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 4.
- Toronto is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Tampa Bay's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Tampa Bay may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Tampa Bay might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Toronto: Tanev C.
(Abdominal strain)
- There will not play in Tampa Bay: Crozier M.
(Muscle Injury)
James D.
(Leg Injury)
Paul N.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Tampa Bay: Goncalves G.
(Lower-Body Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 73:64. (average 3.7:3.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 36:30. (average 3.6:3).
How many head-to-head matches has Toronto Maple Leafs won against Tampa Bay Lightning?
Toronto Maple Leafs has won 12 of their last 17 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Tampa Bay Lightning won against Toronto Maple Leafs?
Tampa Bay Lightning has won 5 of their last 17 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning were as follows:
25.02.2026
Tampa Bay Lightning
-
Toronto Maple Leafs
4:2
08.12.2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
-
Tampa Bay Lightning
2:0
09.04.2025
Tampa Bay Lightning
-
Toronto Maple Leafs
3:4
20.01.2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
-
Tampa Bay Lightning
5:3
30.11.2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
-
Toronto Maple Leafs
3:5
Latest results of Toronto Maple Leafs
Latest results of Tampa Bay Lightning
Draw
Play Offs1/8-finals| 1 | Colorado Avalanche (1) | Los Angeles Kings (8) | 4 : 0 |
| 2 | Dallas Stars (2) | Minnesota Wild (3) | 2 : 2 |
| 3 | Vegas Golden Knights (4) | Utah Mammoth (6) | 2 : 2 |
| 4 | Edmonton Oilers (5) | Anaheim Ducks (7) | 1 : 3 |
| 5 | Carolina Hurricanes (1) | Ottawa Senators (6) | 4 : 0 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Penguins (7) | Philadelphia Flyers (8) | 2 : 3 |
| 7 | Buffalo Sabres (2) | Boston Bruins (5) | 3 : 1 |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Lightning (3) | Montreal Canadiens (4) | 2 : 2 |
Quarter-finalsSemi-finalsFinal
