Result
2:1
02/01/2026 at 15:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 17
- Referee: Narciso A. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Angola | Z Sports 1 |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Sport |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.87 | 1.49 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (323/391) | 75% (227/304) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.87 | 1.49 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.36 | 0.55 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 27 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 20 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (323/391) | 75% (227/304) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 60% (31/52) | 39% (27/69) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (95/129) | 61% (63/103) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 0% (0/16) | 56% (5/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.72 | 0.41 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 25 | 10 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 20 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (9/16) | 70% (14/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 56 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.55 | 0.36 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.45 | -1.64 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 25', Kaique Pereira 🟨,
- 36', Daniel Junior 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Samu ↓, Sousa D. ↑,
- 59', Oliveira N. ↓, Ndoye A. ↑,
- 59', Arcanjo T. ↓, Camara O. ↑,
- 60', Daniel Junior ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
- 60', Baeza M. ↓, Labidi C. ↑,
- 66', Leo Santos ↓, Goncalves C. ↑,
- 67', Maga ↓, Strata T. ↑,
- 70', 1 - 0, Saviolo N. ⚽, Strata T. (A),
- 76', Liziero ↓, Joao L. ↑,
- 76', Jose Gomes ↓, Vallier L. ↑,
- 87', 2 - 0, Abascal R. ⚽, Saviolo N. (A),
- 90', Saviolo N. ↓, Blanco F. ↑,
- 90+2', 2 - 1, Labidi C. ⚽, Joao L. (A),
- 90+7', Strata T. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Vitoria Guimarães
49.4% | Draw
28.3% | Nacional
22.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (-5.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vitoria Guimarães that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+4%)
Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.91 ↓
(2.14) |
3.35
(3.35) |
4.21 ↑
(3.77) |
6.1%
(3.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional?
Users Predictions:
47 users predict this event. Guimarães will win (votes: 37 - 78.7%). Nacional will win (votes: 4 - 8.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 12.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 67% – 90.4%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Guimarães (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.25 - Guimarães (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.5 - Guimarães (1.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Vitoria Guimarães will win (14 of 18 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 21 high ROI users predict this event. Guimarães (votes: 17 - 81%). Nacional (votes: 2 - 9.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 2.
- In recent matches, Guimarães has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Nacional has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Guimarães may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Guimarães is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Guimarães: Gustavo
(Muscle Injury)
Rivas Viondi O.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I.
(Injury)
Soares F.
(Injury)
Ulisses
(Injury)
Witi
(International duty)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:24. (average 1.5:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.7:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Vitoria Guimarães won against Nacional?
Vitoria Guimarães has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Vitoria Guimarães?
Nacional has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional were as follows:
03.05.2025
Nacional
-
Vitoria Guimarães
1:2
23.12.2024
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Nacional
2:2
Latest results of Vitoria Guimarães
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
