Result
0:3
30/01/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 22
- Referee: Rapuano A. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Belarus | Sport TV |
 Italy | DAZN Italia, Destination Calcio, LAB Channel |
 Russia | Telekanal Futbol |
 Slovenia | Sport TV3 |
 United-kingdom | DCTV |
 Usa | DCTV, Fox Soccer Plus, Fox |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.35 | 2.71 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 21 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (241/324) | 76% (243/318) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.35 | 2.71 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.06 | 2.29 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 21 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 12 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 18 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 34 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 19 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (241/324) | 76% (243/318) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 42% (21/50) | 56% (23/41) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 60% (52/86) | 68% (75/111) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (6/20) | 31% (10/32) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.47 | 1.63 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 19 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 45% (5/11) | 63% (10/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 61 | 67 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 43 | 41 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.29 | 0.06 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.71 | 0.06 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 26', Pucino R. 🟨,
- 32', Stabile G. 🟨,
- 38', Palumbo A. 🟨,
- 45+1', Rao E. ↓, Dickmann L. ↑,
- 2nd Half (0 - 3)
- 57', 0 - 1, Le Douaron J. ⚽, Ceccaroni P. (A),
- 63', Mane M. ↓, Cavuoti N. ↑,
- 63', De Pieri G. ↓, Cuni M. ↑,
- 65', Le Douaron J. 🟨,
- 65', Dickmann L. 🟨,
- 67', 0 - 2, Pohjanpalo J. ⚽, Palumbo A. (A),
- 70', Le Douaron J. ↓, Gyasi E. ↑,
- 71', Pierozzi N. 🟨,
- 74', Pohjanpalo J. ↓, Corona G. ↑,
- 74', Pierozzi N. ↓, Bereszynski B. ↑,
- 74', Palumbo A. ↓, Gomes C. ↑,
- 76', Moncini G. ↓, Gytkjaer C. ↑,
- 76', Braunoder M. ↓, Esteves T. ↑,
- 82', 0 - 3, Ranocchia F. (Penalty Awarded),
- 83', Bani M. ↓, Vasic A. ↑,
- 88', Bereszynski B. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Bari
19.7% | Draw
28.8% | Palermo
51.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bari's form might have worsened.Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palermo's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+4.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (-3.8%)
Bari - Palermo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.71 ↑
(3.67) |
3.25 ↑
(3.2) |
1.83 ↓
(2.02) |
6.6%
(8.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Bari - Palermo?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Bari will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Palermo will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palermo: 13.8% – 69.6%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +1 - Palermo (2.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Palermo will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Palermo (votes: 4 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bari won 1.
- Bari has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Palermo is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, Palermo is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Bari: Antonucci M.
(Inactive)
Castrovilli G.
(Inactive)
Darboe E.
(Thigh Injury)
Maggiore G.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Palermo: Diakite S.
(Inactive)
Magnani G.
(Leg Injury)
Veroli D.
(Inactive)
- In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Bari won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 10:22. (average 0.6:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bari won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Bari won against Palermo?
Bari has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Palermo won against Bari?
Palermo has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bari - Palermo were as follows:
19.09.2025
Palermo
-
Bari
2:0
11.04.2025
Bari
-
Palermo
2:1
26.12.2024
Palermo
-
Bari
1:0
02.02.2024
Palermo
-
Bari
3:0
18.08.2023
Bari
-
Palermo
0:0
Latest results of Palermo
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 63:26 | 37 | 67 |
| 2 | Monza | 31 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 49:25 | 24 | 64 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 31 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 59:31 | 28 | 62 |
| 4 | Palermo | 31 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 51:27 | 24 | 58 |
| 5 | Catanzaro | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 48:35 | 13 | 52 |
| 6 | Modena | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 40:24 | 16 | 47 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 31 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 35:37 | -2 | 42 |
| 8 | Cesena | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 38:46 | -8 | 40 |
| 9 | Avellino | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 36:49 | -13 | 39 |
| 10 | Sudtirol | 31 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 33:32 | 1 | 38 |
| 11 | Carrarese | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 38:42 | -4 | 36 |
| 12 | Padova | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 32:42 | -10 | 34 |
| 13 | Mantova | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 35:46 | -11 | 34 |
| 14 | Empoli | 31 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 39:45 | -6 | 33 |
| 15 | Sampdoria | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 29:42 | -13 | 31 |
| 16 | Bari | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 30:47 | -17 | 31 |
| 17 | Entella | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 28:45 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Spezia | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 30:43 | -13 | 30 |
| 19 | Reggiana | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 30:46 | -16 | 30 |
| 20 | Pescara | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 41:54 | -13 | 29 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
