Result
1:2
18/03/2026 at 05:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 7
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Canal GOAT |
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.66 | 0.44 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (339/445) | 75% (269/360) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.66 | 0.44 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 1.82 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (339/445) | 75% (269/360) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 42% (30/72) | 36% (26/73) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (77/126) | 63% (88/140) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (2/16) | 23% (3/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.77 | 0.68 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 26 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 55% (11/20) | 71% (12/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 56 | 62 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 21 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.82 | 0.99 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.18 | -0.01 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 19', 1 - 0, Sakuragawa S. ⚽, Yokoyama Y. (A),
- 30', Kudo K. 🟨,
- 45', 1 - 1, Werik Popo ⚽, Yamane T. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Tagami D. ↓, Omori H. ↑,
- 51', Omori H. 🟨,
- 59', Ichimi K. ↓, Lucao ↑,
- 59', Yokoyama Y. ↓, Sakata R. ↑,
- 60', Nakajima M. ↓, Shibayama M. ↑,
- 69', 1 - 2, Yamane T. ⚽, Kudo K. (A),
- 70', Kida H. ↓, Kagawa S. ↑,
- 70', Thiago Andrade ↓, Homma S. ↑,
- 75', Werik Popo ↓, Kimura T. ↑,
- 75', Matsumoto M. ↓, Motoyama H. ↑,
- 85', Ishiwatari N. ↓, Kanemoto W. ↑,
- 87', Esaka A. ↓, Fujii K. ↑,
Chances of winning
Cerezo Osaka
48.3% | Draw
26.4% | Fagiano Okayama
25.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cerezo Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (+3.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.95 ↑
(1.82) |
3.53 ↓
(3.89) |
3.68 ↓
(3.95) |
6.8%
(6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cerezo Osaka: 41.6% – 98.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Cerezo Osaka will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 4.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- In this match, Cerezo Osaka is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Fernandes L.
(Knee Injury)
Kim Jin-Hyeon
(Ankle Injury)
Takahashi T.
(Back Injury)
Uejo S.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Cerezo Osaka: Yengi K.
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:6. (average 1.6:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Cerezo Osaka won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Cerezo Osaka won against Fagiano Okayama?
Cerezo Osaka has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fagiano Okayama won against Cerezo Osaka?
Fagiano Okayama has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama were as follows:
18.10.2025
Fagiano Okayama
-
Cerezo Osaka
1:2
02.04.2025
Cerezo Osaka
-
Fagiano Okayama
2:1
Latest results of Cerezo Osaka
Latest results of Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League Table
2026East | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:7 | 23 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16:9 | 20 |
| 3 | Machida | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16:16 | 19 |
| 4 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 16:17 | 14 |
| 5 | Verdy | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 13 |
| 6 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 15:13 | 11 |
| 7 | Urawa Reds | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 8 | Mito | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11:18 | 10 |
| 9 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12:15 | 9 |
| 10 | Chiba | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9:16 | 8 |
West | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 20:10 | 22 |
| 2 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16:13 | 17 |
| 3 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 15:12 | 16 |
| 4 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 10 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14:12 | 16 |
| 5 | Kyoto | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 6 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10:14 | 12 |
| 7 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 8 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9:11 | 11 |
| 9 | Okayama | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10:15 | 11 |
| 10 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9:17 | 8 |
Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
