Result
4:1
27/12/2025 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 16
- Referee: Verissimo F. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3, COSMOTE Sport 5 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 South-america | Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.31 | 0.75 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 64% | 36% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (549/618) | 79% (264/336) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.31 | 0.75 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.89 | 1.42 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (549/618) | 79% (264/336) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 63% (27/43) | 45% (21/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (92/131) | 61% (46/75) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (3/12) | 17% (3/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.80 | 0.49 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 20 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (13/23) | 72% (13/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 59 | 41 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 23 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.42 | 1.89 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.42 | -0.11 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 36', 1 - 0, Meupiyou B. (Own goal),
- 43', 2 - 0, Begraoui Y. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Nuozzi C. ↓, Marezi ↑,
- 47', 3 - 0, Begraoui Y. ⚽, Carvalho J. (A),
- 49', Lincoln 🟨,
- 52', Carvalho P. 🟨,
- 55', Touaizi N. 🟨,
- 57', Carvalho J. ↓, Tsoungui A. ↑,
- 60', 4 - 0, Meupiyou B. (Own goal),
- 61', Marezi ↓, Leite T. ↑,
- 61', Lincoln ↓, Gui D. ↑,
- 67', 4 - 1, Amorim ⚽, Abdulai S. (A),
- 68', Amaral P. ↓, Pizzi ↑,
- 68', Carvalho P. ↓, Parente T. ↑,
- 74', Sandro Lima ↓, Felipe Lima ↑,
- 75', Meupiyou B. ↓, Gomez S. ↑,
- 86', Martinez J. 🟨,
- 87', Marques A. ↓, Peixinho ↑,
- 88', Jandro ↓, Lominadze N. ↑,
- 90+2', Tsoungui A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Estoril Praia
42.4% | Draw
27.8% | Alverca
29.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (-2.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+1.3%)
Estoril Praia - Alverca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.23 ↓
(2.51) |
3.4 ↑
(3.3) |
3.14 ↑
(3.04) |
6%
(3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Estoril Praia - Alverca?
Users Predictions:
30 users predict this event. Estoril will win (votes: 23 - 76.7%). Alverca will win (votes: 3 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estoril: 61.6% – 91.8%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 10 high ROI users predict this event. Estoril (votes: 7 - 70%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Estoril (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Estoril (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- 1X2, 1st Half - Estoril (2.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 13 high ROI users predict this event. Estoril (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 11).
- Estoril is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Alverca's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Alverca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Estoril could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Estoril: Costa G.
(Injury)
Guitane R.
(International duty)
Sanchez R.
(Yellow Cards)
Xeka
(Injury)
- There will not play in Alverca: Diarra S.
(Muscle Injury)
Mendes T.
(Muscle Injury)
Paulo A.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Estoril: Amaral P.
(Injury)
Israelov O.
(Thigh Injury)
Sanchez R.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Alverca: Chiquinho
(Injury)
Leo Chu
(Injury)
- Recently, there has been no match between the teams.
How many head-to-head matches has Estoril Praia won against Alverca?
Estoril Praia has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Alverca won against Estoril Praia?
Alverca has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Estoril Praia - Alverca were as follows:
Latest results of Estoril Praia
Latest results of Alverca
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
